The Situation
First Capital Bank (fictional), $45B in assets, was traditionally a wholesale-funded institution. In 2015, deposits were only 55% of funding; wholesale debt was 45%. The bank relied on capital markets access and had significant maturity risk (wholesale debt had to be regularly refinanced).
Then came 2020-2022: Rates fell to near-zero, deposit inflows exploded (pandemic stimulus, low rates). First Capital suddenly had more deposits than it could deploy profitably. Wholesale funding shrank to 30% of total.
By 2023, the rate environment had reversed: Fed raised rates; wholesale funding was expensive again (4.75%); but the bank now had a deposit base and didn't need wholesale funding.
The Challenge
First Capital needed to transition from a wholesale-funded bank to a deposit-funded bank. This required:
1. Building deposit franchise: Invest in branches, digital banking, customer service
2. Redefining customer base: Shift from institutional (wholesale) to retail/SMB (deposits)
3. Resizing wholesale funding: Close wholesale funding relationships no longer needed
4. Managing the transition: Don't create a cliff where wholesale funding evaporates
The Solution
Phase 1 (2020-2021): Building Deposits
- Launched digital savings platform (high rates, easy access)
- Added branch in high-growth markets
- Invested in business banking (payroll, treasury services)
- Result: Deposits grew from $25B to $32B (+28%)
Phase 2 (2021-2022): Reducing Wholesale Reliance- Matured wholesale debt on normal schedule (didn't roll over)
- Reduced wholesale funding from $20B to $10B
- Maintained relationships with key wholesale counterparties (for future needs)
Phase 3 (2022-2023): Optimizing Mix- By end of 2023: Deposits $38B (84%), wholesale $7B (16%)
- Deposit mix: 60% retail, 40% business (strong diversification)
- Deposit betas normalized to 70% (competitive but stable)
The ALM Implications
Funding cost:
- 2015: 65% wholesale (4%) + 35% deposits (0.5%) = Blended 2.5%
- 2023: 84% deposits (3.8%) + 16% wholesale (4.5%) = Blended 3.85%
Deposit-funded costs MORE in a high-rate environment! But the bank preferred stability.
Duration and EVE:
- 2015: Wholesale funding (2-5 year maturity) = Liability duration 2.0 years
- 2023: Deposits (sticky, effectively 2+ year) = Liability duration 2.2 years
- Asset duration stayed stable: 3.5 years
- EVE sensitivity: 2015 was -10% to -200 bp; 2023 is -9.5% (improvement due to stable liabilities)
Liquidity:- 2015: Wholesale maturity cliff (had to refinance regularly)
- 2023: Deposit base is stable (lower refinancing risk)
The Takeaway
Transitioning from wholesale to deposit-funded requires:
1. Long-term commitment (5+ year timeline)
2. Investment in franchise
3. Acceptance of higher funding cost in exchange for stability
4. Careful management of the transition (don't create funding cliffs)
First Capital's board made the strategic choice: We'll pay a bit more for funding, but we'll be more stable and less dependent on capital markets. That's a valid ALM strategy.
Case Study 1 Deep Dive: The Numbers and Timeline
Year-by-Year Transition
2015 (Pre-transition):
- Deposits: $25B (55%) @ 0.5% = $125M annual cost
- Wholesale debt: $20B (45%) @ 4.0% = $800M annual cost
- Blended funding cost: 2.05%
- Deposits: Average life 3 years (sticky)
- Wholesale: $3B maturing each year (needs refinancing)
- Challenge: Vulnerable to market dislocation (wholesale markets seize up, bank can't refinance)
2019 (Pre-COVID):- Deposits growing slowly: $28B (58%)
- Wholesale still $20B (42%)
- Funding cost: 2.1% (rates had risen slightly from 2015)
2020-2022 (COVID boom):- Deposit inflows accelerated (pandemic stimulus, low rates)
- By end of 2022:
- Deposits: $36B (78%)
- Wholesale debt: $10B (22%)
- Funding cost: 1.8% (average across periods; rates were very low in 2020-2021)
- Problem: Bank can't deploy deposits profitably (NIM compressed to 150 bps)
2023 (Post-hike):- Deposits: $38B (84%) @ 3.8% = $1,444M annual cost
- Wholesale: $7B (16%) @ 4.5% = $315M annual cost
- Blended funding cost: 3.85%
- Funding maturity:
- Deposits: Now very sticky (customer relationships, digital convenience)
- Wholesale: Only $1B maturing per year (much reduced refinancing risk)
The Trade-off
First Capital paid for stability:
- 2015 to 2023: Blended funding cost increased from 2.05% to 3.85% (180 bps)
- Over 8 years, cumulative excess funding cost: ~$800M
- But: Avoided wholesale funding crunch, built sustainable franchise, reduced refinancing risk
Regulators and the board viewed this as worthwhile.
Lessons Learned
1. Deposits are safer than wholesale in a crisis, but more expensive in a high-rate environment
2. Building deposit franchise takes time (3-5 years minimum)
3. Don't force it: First Capital didn't try to move too fast; gradual transition was smoother
4. Maintain wholesale relationships: Even as wholesale shrank, maintaining key relationships ensured future optionality
Takeaway
Structural changes to funding mix are ALM decisions with long-term consequences. Evaluate carefully; execute patiently.